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BEET PULP

follows the escalation of prices in the sugar beet pulp, especially in ports coming to the 178 € / t, all low power and there in these moments. National pulp awaiting the new crop, is located on the 160 € / t. about, hoping that prices rectified once the new season started. However with barley to 180 € / t removal from storage will be hard to see a pulp cheaper, unless the stocks begin to weigh on the factory with the new harvest, and we believe that we will see only minimal in mid-October .
In France the new crop pulp is the same price of 117 € / Tm.

SOYBEAN MEAL

We have had adjustment in soybean futures (and the rise of the corresponding bases by multinationals) but prices remain the same. We still believe that while the oil price will not rise, no meals fall.
Here are some details:

1 - On Friday, the USDA gave some soybean meal exports 86,800 tons per week (378.400Tm last week) with the expected range between 150/250.000TM and soy 848.200Tm (613,900 weeks ago) with the expected range 600/800.000Tm.
2 - According to operations manager Frank Zhou soy Cagill Inv. Ltd in China, buyers have reserved 12 of the new crop mill.Tm USA 8 mill.Tm 2010/11 and 2011 harvest in South America.
3 - According to USDA China reached the figure of 55 mill.Tm of imports for the 2010/11 harvest (52 August mill.Tm report mill.Tm 41.10 2009 campaign). Confirming the USDA Luan CNGOIC Argentina and vice president of Chinatex Richeng Corp. agreed that China will continue to import soybeans to 55 mill.Tm. We believe that China does not buy oil to Argentina, is driving these massive purchases of soybeans (Argentina, Brazil and USA), directly to the grinding process in their country, it seems that the Sino-Argentine trade war China is winning by a landslide.
4 - September 12, the USDA estimated that 63% of soybean crops were good-excellent, one point less than the previous week and below last year.


5 - According to USDA's September production increased from 91.04 to 93.44 USA mill.Tm, initial stocks fell by 380,000 Tm, 230.000Tm increase consumption, exports also increased to 39.05 mill.Tm, leaving ending stocks equal to 9.8 mill.Tm (Engineering Mathematics) above the expected mill.Tm 8.27 market.
6 - The group has raised PROFARMA soybean production in the U.S. to a record 95.2 3.020Kgrs mil.Tm yielding. per hectare well above the USDA.
7 - Worldwide, the USDA estimated a production of mill.Tm 253.69 (251.29 mill.Tm above), with a rise in exports (China effect) and a decrease of 64.73 mil final stocks . t (67.76 mill.Tm above)
8 - The weather remains favorable in USA, here I put a map of humidity:



9 - It seems that Brazil does not reduce the area planted with soybeans, but rather increase a little.
10 - As the weather in Argentina seems to have improved over the past week, but not in Brazil where the weather remains dry.
11 - according to the CFTC funds are purchased on an overall net position between 20.1 and 20.3% of open interest, and highs in the coming weeks that would give a profit taking

This month September after the report the future of soybeans fell (as already said), what happens is that the foundations have risen and the price remains more or less on the same levels. It's funny that if you calculate the price based on 0, would soybean on 276 € / t and not to 320 € / t as we have now (44 € less.) We get the feeling that someone is manipulating the bases to keep prices on the 315 € / t and that as much as lower the future will be compensated for by bases, causing market prices do not fall.

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BEET PULP

With rising grain prices pulp was also drawn up, but demand had risen sufficiently to cause such a rise. The situation is complicated with prices in ports very expensive or even absent (Tarragona € 164 / t, Cartagena 180 € / t) and a national pulp is still missing about a month to start. However there are still leftover pulp stocks to last until the joint campaigns and real consumption is very low with cumulative production from feed manufacturers who agree with concern the current situation. French prices stay above the 117 € / t unchanged this week.
We note with concern the current market situation with high prices in general, but also with low demands do not justify these prices and the fact that the general consumer is not financially prepared to withstand these increases, which only have the option of reducing its production to wait for better times. It gives us the feeling that reality does not justify the price increases that have occurred and possibly meet again in a month at lower prices than the current, time will tell.

SOYBEAN MEAL

follows the same pattern of behavior in recent months as we near the end of the month the flour goes up in price in the future (and market) and as it approaches the 10 day report of the month is adjusted.
Here are some details:

1 - The USDA gave a weekly exports for 2009/10 marketing year of 167,700 t (181.000Tm last week) with China in the lead with 114.000Tm. And for the 2010/11 crop exports amounting to 824.100Tm (2.49.500Tm last week.) The market expected a total of between 900/1.000.000Tm exports.
2 - Last week, the USDA estimated that 64% of soybean crops were good-excellent, like the previous week and above last year. The positive note is the increase of a regular point for the week.



3 - As the weather traders remain concerned that many areas of Indiana and Ohio are too dry and any plant that is maturing performance may be affected in the end, even the "syndrome sudden death. " I put a map of moisture below



4 - Funds still overbought with a net long position of 130,950 contracts (8029 contracts less than last week) in soybean to 24 August.
5 - From August 24 to September 18 is expected to go 1.44 mill.Tm soybean by Argentine ports (665.000Tm last year at this time)
6 - is also concerned about the phenomenon of La Niña Argentina, which could extend at least until the end of the year, which together with that certain areas are low humidity recorded in the field, might suggest that by 2010/11 will not as favorable as the present.

Can the final month of September for the fall in soybean meal? We believe that for this to happen have to be several situations, the first that the euro back to levels of 1,30 / 1,35 against the dollar, second that the oil rises to $ 80 levels and third consequence of the above the soybean oil price hike too. The question is Can this happen? We must follow the market and watch as other fundamental as the weather are entering the field of play and may change the current scene.