BEET PULP
follows the escalation of prices in the sugar beet pulp, especially in ports coming to the 178 € / t, all low power and there in these moments. National pulp awaiting the new crop, is located on the 160 € / t. about, hoping that prices rectified once the new season started. However with barley to 180 € / t removal from storage will be hard to see a pulp cheaper, unless the stocks begin to weigh on the factory with the new harvest, and we believe that we will see only minimal in mid-October .
In France the new crop pulp is the same price of 117 € / Tm.
SOYBEAN MEAL
We have had adjustment in soybean futures (and the rise of the corresponding bases by multinationals) but prices remain the same. We still believe that while the oil price will not rise, no meals fall.
Here are some details:
1 - On Friday, the USDA gave some soybean meal exports 86,800 tons per week (378.400Tm last week) with the expected range between 150/250.000TM and soy 848.200Tm (613,900 weeks ago) with the expected range 600/800.000Tm.
2 - According to operations manager Frank Zhou soy Cagill Inv. Ltd in China, buyers have reserved 12 of the new crop mill.Tm USA 8 mill.Tm 2010/11 and 2011 harvest in South America.
3 - According to USDA China reached the figure of 55 mill.Tm of imports for the 2010/11 harvest (52 August mill.Tm report mill.Tm 41.10 2009 campaign). Confirming the USDA Luan CNGOIC Argentina and vice president of Chinatex Richeng Corp. agreed that China will continue to import soybeans to 55 mill.Tm. We believe that China does not buy oil to Argentina, is driving these massive purchases of soybeans (Argentina, Brazil and USA), directly to the grinding process in their country, it seems that the Sino-Argentine trade war China is winning by a landslide.
4 - September 12, the USDA estimated that 63% of soybean crops were good-excellent, one point less than the previous week and below last year.
5 - According to USDA's September production increased from 91.04 to 93.44 USA mill.Tm, initial stocks fell by 380,000 Tm, 230.000Tm increase consumption, exports also increased to 39.05 mill.Tm, leaving ending stocks equal to 9.8 mill.Tm (Engineering Mathematics) above the expected mill.Tm 8.27 market.
6 - The group has raised PROFARMA soybean production in the U.S. to a record 95.2 3.020Kgrs mil.Tm yielding. per hectare well above the USDA.
7 - Worldwide, the USDA estimated a production of mill.Tm 253.69 (251.29 mill.Tm above), with a rise in exports (China effect) and a decrease of 64.73 mil final stocks . t (67.76 mill.Tm above)
8 - The weather remains favorable in USA, here I put a map of humidity:
9 - It seems that Brazil does not reduce the area planted with soybeans, but rather increase a little.
10 - As the weather in Argentina seems to have improved over the past week, but not in Brazil where the weather remains dry.
11 - according to the CFTC funds are purchased on an overall net position between 20.1 and 20.3% of open interest, and highs in the coming weeks that would give a profit taking
This month September after the report the future of soybeans fell (as already said), what happens is that the foundations have risen and the price remains more or less on the same levels. It's funny that if you calculate the price based on 0, would soybean on 276 € / t and not to 320 € / t as we have now (44 € less.) We get the feeling that someone is manipulating the bases to keep prices on the 315 € / t and that as much as lower the future will be compensated for by bases, causing market prices do not fall.
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