maker is only the Bañeza working, that it will end this week. Prices have fallen for the national pulp standing on the 110 € / t except Toro and Acor that is kept in firm at 118 € / t and 124 € / t respectively. In the pulp ports try to climb the effect of the rise of the dollar, but to no avail, only from August until the end of the year the prices are above 130 € / Tm.
The outlook remains particularly cheap grain and barley that goes down again in prices and we do not vary in the short term. Therefore the price of pulp can be kept a few more months.
SOYBEAN MEAL
After yesterday's USDA report, things have not changed much. The problems with the availability of soybean meal continues, despite the arrival of a ship and the production of Bunge and Cargill. We are one or two weeks to start arriving ships from South America and normalize the situation in the ports. However there remains the threat of a strike by the CETM (dockworkers union English sea) from Tuesday 18 to Saturday 22 days of this month (so far), which are against the new Law on Ports that want take forward the Government.
data to consider:
1 - According to Paraguayan Chamber of Exporters, the country this year expects to produce 7.4 million tons (6.8 mill TM campaign 2007/08). Remember that Paraguay is the fourth largest exporter of soybeans.
2 - Despite the Sino-Argentine oil, soybean exports to China from Argentina rose by almost a 10% to 15.23 mill MT. in total, which shows that China does not have many alternatives to the importation of soybeans as the USA are in their final cycle with few stocks for export.
3 - And in turn reduces the annual production of soybean meal by 18.3% Argentina to 1 , 31 mill tonnes in March (February TM 1.09 mill.)
4 - According to the National Center of Grain and Oils Information of China (CNGOIC), soybean imports in May and June to reach a record level of 5 million MT per month.
5 - turn China could suffer a cut in soybean area due to the higher yield of corn, if time allows, as the rain or cold temperatures could change the forecast.
6 - According to the latest USDA report yesterday, the U.S. crop would remain at Tm 91.42 to 47.22 mill grinding mill (mill tonnes in April 47.08) , with a total consumption of 50.83 mill.Tm (51.10 mill tonnes in April) and exports of 39.60 mio t (39.33 tons mill April). Finally ending stocks would be the same in 5.16 mill tons.
7 - For Brazil, the USDA estimated at 68 mio mt (67.5 mill Tm April) and Argentina unchanged at 54 million tonnes.
8 - As important finding soybean imports from China went to 46 mill. Tm (43.5 mill. Tm April), from its reserves to 11.49 mill. T (10.27 mill TM April).
9 - by 2010/11 to the USDA estimates that will increase the area planted in the U.S. to 31.6 mill of hectares (30.63 mill has 2009) with an estimated production of 90.08 tons mill and a yield of 28.85 quintals / ha (29.6 qq / ha 2009)
We still have clear whether or not we have reached the ceiling of soybean, there are many uncertainties in the markets. However we will not be quite clear that soy worldwide until late May or early June, when they arrive ships and even then depending on the time you can come and soybean factories Bunge and Cargill.
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